Cal Poly, UC Davis to join Big Sky Conference

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The much-rumored talk of the Big Sky Conference losing the University of Montana, and perhaps other schools, took on another twist Tuesday.

Big Sky football is expanding.

One of the top conferences in the Football Championship Subdivision, the Big Sky announced that UC Davis and Cal Poly have accepted invitations to become affiliate members in football only, bringing the membership up to 11 teams. A timeline for the switch was not announced, but the move seems feasible for the 2012 season.

UC Davis and Cal Poly have the strongest programs in the five-school Great West Football Conference, which will have to seek new membership or, more likely, fall apart. The majority of UC Davis and Cal Poly teams compete in the Big West Conference.

"The Big Sky is recognized as one of the top Football Championship Subdivision conferences in the nation," Big Sky Conference commissioner Doug Fullerton said in a statement. "The addition of two great institutions like Cal Poly and UC Davis gives us more depth to compete for additional playoff berths and enhances our profile throughout California. This is a great fit for both institutions and the Big Sky Conference. We are bringing in two strong western FCS programs. They will benefit from us in having access to an automatic playoff bid and a full slate of conference games.

"We worked in cooperation with Big West Conference commissioner Dennis Farrell," Fullerton added. "The Big West fully supports this effort, as it gives its two football-playing members a home."

UC Davis and Cal Poly will have to adhere to the withdrawal procedure of the Great West - a process which could take a year. Most of the Big Sky schools have nine or 10 games scheduled for 2011, but the change could happen in 2012.

UC Davis and Cal Poly, which were Division II powers before moving up to Division I, would join Sacramento State as Big Sky programs in California, where high school talent is rich. Both schools have excellent facilities and fan bases.

Cal Poly, whose head coach, Tim Walsh, coached Big Sky member Portland State from 1993-2006, won the Great West championship in 2008, and UC Davis captured it last year. In 2009, UC Davis averaged 9,908 fans for five home games and Cal Poly averaged 9,588 for five home games, which would have ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among Big Sky programs.

"This is an extremely exciting day for our football program and the institution," UC Davis athletic director Greg Warzecka said. "Our fans will not only be able to watch some great teams come to Aggie Stadium, but they will have a much better opportunity to travel to road games."

"Our goal all along has been to find stability for our football program, and the Big Sky Conference gives us exactly what we needed," Cal Poly athletic director Alison Cone said. "The Big Sky Conference is one of the best FCS conferences in the country and offers great competition with teams that are natural rivals in our region."

Fullerton said the Big Sky will seek future expansion to create a 12-team football conference which would split into two six-team divisions.

The announcement comes during a week in which Cal Poly will host top-ranked Montana and UC Davis will host Portland State.

The nine Big Sky programs in 2009 are Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State and Weber State.

Besides UC Davis and Cal Poly, the Great West's members are North Dakota, South Dakota and Southern Utah. The latter three programs could be expansion possibilities for the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which has nine programs.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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