6 on the coaching hot seat

Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 -

It might not be a wise choice for several NFL coaches to sit down this season. Their seats are going to be awfully hot.

Winning records are advised for John Fox, Jack Del Rio, Eric Mangini, Tom Cable, Raheem Morris and Lovie Smith, or else their tenures in charge could end in early January - if not sooner.

Fox doesn't even have a contract after 2010, even though his Panthers come off an 8-8 season and he's taken them to one Super Bowl and two NFC championship games in his eight seasons in Carolina. Mangini can look over his shoulder and see Browns president Mike Holmgren, one of the best coaches of the last 20 years, running things in Cleveland. Cable works for the unpredictable Al Davis in Oakland.

Here's a six-pack of coaches feeling the heat.

- John Fox, Carolina: When the Panthers opted to let Fox coach out his contract, it became apparent the franchise is looking to make a move if 2010 is not a memorable year. Injuries have plagued the Panthers in recent seasons, and there is plenty of transition, particularly on defense. So Fox easily could be gone in January, but don't fret: Fox will get snapped up quickly.

- Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville: Three years ago, this was a team on the rise. Now, the Jaguars can't get people into the stadium, struggle late in games and appear to be far behind the other AFC South teams.

- Eric Mangini, Cleveland: The Browns won their final four games, long after they had become irrelevant in the AFC standings, then Mangini persuaded Holmgren to give him another chance. The roster doesn't look any stronger after a 5-11 season, and unless Mangini shows some versatility in demeanor and strategy, his stay in Cleveland could end with another firing.

- Tom Cable, Oakland: Longevity as Raiders coach is a myth if your name isn't Madden or Flores. At least Cable doesn't have any personal issues cluttering the headlines this year. But with Davis pegging new quarterback Jason Campbell as another Jim Plunkett, Cable needs a bunch of victories. The Raiders haven't won more than five games in a season since 2002.

- Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay: A team in flux on both sides of the ball, and Morris fired both his coordinators in 2009. The Bucs used a one-sentence statement to say he would return for a second season. If Tampa Bay finishes in the cellar again, the 34-year-old Morris likely won't get a third year.

- Lovie Smith, Chicago: The Bears have not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. Trading for QB Jay Cutler was supposed to juice the offense, but it didn't work. Smith's forte is defense, but the Bears allowed 375 points a year ago.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.